Abstract

This work aims to predict the burden of mental diseases to provide suZcient capacities for treatment. A microsimulation model is built to simulate the course of events of mentally ill patients. Three scenarios of simulations are de1ned to test the consequences of using differently detailed patient-level data on result quality. Signi1cant differences in the results are encountered. The overall numbers and times of patients events are analyzed as well as the number of events per patient. The differences between the results for the different scenarios and for the various subpopulations regarding patient parameters are pointed out. For example, psychotic patients tend to have more readmissions. Further analyses regarding the connection between ambulant contacts and readmissions to the hospital are performed. Also, regional differences of Lower Austria compared to the entire Austrian population are analyzed. Finally, an intervention strategy with compulsory ambulant contacts is examined.