Abstract

 In autumn 2015, Europe was confronted with a dramatic migration and refugee’s movement – the so-called Refugee Crisis 2015. No ebbing of the migration and refugee pathways can be expected for the near future. Can simulation help to analyse the pathway of migration in such a critical case, and can simulation forecast pathways of migrants and refugees under different circumstances? This contribution first sketches variants of the Spatial Interaction Model, a model approach for any kind of population shift in certain regions. This more theoretical introduction is followed by the development of a Spatial Interaction Model for the pathway of migrants and refugees during the Refugee Crisis 2015, and by model implementation and identification of model parameters based on UNHCR data reported during the crisis. Next follows a spatial extension including the Mediterranean Sea route allowing a forecast and real data comparison for pathways of migrants and refugees in summer 2016. Last step is development of a Scenario Model allowing the study of possible control actions. The simulation model does not provide direct help for the people involved, but the simulation can help in better understanding and improving the situation of migrants and refugees – the authors hope.